Fed Funds Effective Rate Shows Fed Did Indeed Hike by 25 Basis Points

I was on record stating a belief the Fed would effectively hike by 1/8 point. I had that belief because that is what the Fed Fund Futures implied.

Regardless, I was wrong. If someone is going to prove you wrong it may as well be yourself.

Here is a table of Effective Fed Funds Rates straight from the New York Fed. I created the table from their downloadable data.

Effective Fed Funds Rate

Date	Effective Rate	Low	High	Std. Dev.	Target Rate
2015-12-17	0.37	0.25	0.59	0.05	0.25-0.50
2015-12-16	0.15	0.08	0.55	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-15	0.15	0.09	0.31	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-14	0.15	0.07	0.31	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-11	0.14	0.07	0.38	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-10	0.14	0.07	0.38	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-09	0.14	0.06	0.38	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-08	0.13	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-07	0.13	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-04	0.13	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-03	0.13	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-02	0.13	0.04	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-12-01	0.13	0.07	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-30	0.08	0.04	0.31	0.06	0.00-0.25
2015-11-27	0.12	0.02	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-25	0.12	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-11-24	0.12	0.05	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-23	0.12	0.07	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-20	0.12	0.07	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-11-19	0.12	0.05	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-18	0.12	0.05	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-17	0.13	0.07	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-16	0.13	0.06	0.35	0.05	0.00-0.25
2015-11-13	0.12	0.06	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25
2015-11-12	0.12	0.05	0.35	0.04	0.00-0.25

Previous effective rates hovered around 12.5 basis points. That is 1/8 of a point. A quarter-point (25 basis points) hike would have been to 37.5. An eighth-of-a-point hike would have been to 25 basis points. Today we are at 37.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock